May 2016 – Haas F1 Fan Journal

2016 Monaco Grand Prix – Race Final

It was an amazing sight seeing an American Formula 1 team on the streets of Monaco. The resulting images were far more appealing and valuable than the race results. The team just missed points with Gutierrez and Grosjean finishing 12th and 15th respectively.

But the part of the finish which is easy to miss is the finish. Yet again, the Haas F1 Team brought both of their outfits hofe for a final race. they’ve notched yet another race on the reliability totem pole. We’ve been spoiled by their early points, and it’s easy to overlook what they are achieving. Reliability is a foundation that winning must be built on. Proving successful in the small things will bear fruit in the end. But for now, we can wallow in the self imposed pitty off no points!

Kimi Raikkonen seemed to end Grosjean’s chances for points when his spin put grosjean at the back of the pack. Once Grosjean got stuck behind the Manor car driven by Wehrlein he was done. Esteban could not bring home that 10th position… he seems to be stuck at 11th.

Onward and upward… On to Canada! ah?

2016 Monaco Grand Prix – Race Preview

Red Bull is bringing their “A” game to the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix. They have developed a new engine, but only have one ready. Despite the amazing victory by Max Verstappen in Spain, the decision was a no brainer for the engine choice nod to go to Daniel Riccardo.

After watching the first two practice sessions the general consensus seems to be that Red bull is the likely candidate for pole, and Riccardo’s lead after P2 seems to support that. But rewind and contrast to the 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix. Vettel took his first victory in a Ferrari after only his second drive for the team. It was what would become the beginning of a culture of complaining being expressed by the Red Bull Team principal. The noise coming from the Red Bull camp seemed to simmer down once their motor contract issues were resolved late in the 2015 season. Max Verstappen’s win in Spain has solidified their belief that they can win with this car, and the Monaco circuit suites the Red Bull chassis well. The Planets are aligned and Christian Horner seems poised to have his revenge.

I know this is the Haas F1 Journal, but the discussion must begin with pole position. Passing on the Monaco circuit generally comes at the cost of a mistake by another driver. But the narrow roads that twist up and down the steep grades of the mediterranean fishing village were too dangerous for racing in the 1950’s. I would place the odds of a yellow flag after turn 1 at over 50% in favor of a “coming together” if not worse. If the team can qualify well, not lose position or contention because of crashing, and the attrition rate in front of them is high, the Haas F1 Team can score points. There are a lot “if’s” in that sentence, but the Haas Team is at even odds with the rest of the pack in that regard. The racecraft that Gene Haas brings to the F1 paddock could be the difference in a position or whether they score points. Attrition is generally beyond the control of the team. But mistakes can be less forgiving at Monaco. A stuck wheel spinner during a pit stop could mean a position. So having the fastest car on pole should give you the best opportunity to clear turn 1 as the leader. The odds for trouble escalates as you work your way back through the first few rows of legitimate contenders. It is that next group of teams where Haas has demonstrated good pace to compete, among the mid-pack teams.

Now this is a new team, but the learning curve is steep. There is a very real possibility for the Haas F1 Team to score points in Monaco. But can they put 2 cars in the money? It’s really difficult to objectively say. Esteban Gutierrez finished Practice 2 in 13th position and Romain Grosjean in 15th. The Haas racecraft has proven effective up to this point. But is Monaco the “eye opener” the Haas detractors spoke of before the season started? Could be.

Like I said, the learning curve is steep and there is less room for mistakes at Monaco. The Haas drivers will be up to the task. I have complete confidence in Romain Grosjean and am modestly optimistic. In Spain Grosjean qualified in 13th position. Gutierrez anchored the last position from the Q2 qualifiers in 15th position. That is about where we should realistically expect them to qualify for Monaco. Can they score points from that far back? The Ferrari power in the Haas car has demonstrated the ability to keep the mid pack at bey when their tires hold out. Perhaps tire strategy could come into play?

The Ultra Soft Pirelli’s seem to be a bit… “floaty” during practice. The side walls do not appear to be matching the design metrics or load balancing intent of the suspension. Commentators on NBC indicated that more rear wing down force is required to keep the back ends of the cars planted. But a sidewall performance issue can only be negated by the rear downforce, not corrected. If the side walls of the front tires are providing varied load transfer to the suspension then a suspension adjustment is required first. But vehicle dynamics can be more of an art than engineering. So the suspension has to be tuned to an estimated mid-point of the various sidewall stiffness on the various compounds. If the softness of the Ultrasofts are too far out of the range, we could see excessive rear tire wear as the backs ends of the cars lose that balance between the front and rear tires and the load fails to transfer, causing an imbalance in dynamics and the rear to float. Hence excessive tire wear.

Who knows what will happen. The third practice has not happened yet, so I am working with what info I have through P2. But perhaps I’ve omitted the single factor which could have the biggest impact, the weather. The forecast for qualifying is for warm temps up to 75 degrees (24 celsius). The race is scheduled to start at 2:00 PM local time (8:00 AM East Coast US) On Sunday. Accu-Weather is predicting 51% chance of thunder showers at 1:00 PM in Monaco.

I’m sticking with my default prediction. Haas will have one car in points. Having both cars cross the finish line will be an important feat. The rain could be a mess, making for an exciting race. And the rain favors Grosjean. He seems to do well when tire treatment comes into play. This is where racecraft, good driving and a bit of luck at turn 1 could play to the favor of the Haas Team.

I’d be remiss if I did not mention the pride which will be felt by Americans around the world as the Haas F1 cars line up on the starting grid of the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix. The excitement for the Haas F1 Team is growing across the US. And when a car wearing the American flag competes, it also competes for 300 Million other Americans. This is Memorial Day weekend in the United States. On Monday May 30th we will not only be enjoying an extended weekend holiday but remembering the fallen Americans from all wars. The flag on the Haas car races for them, and 300 Million Americans are along for the ride!

Qualifying is tomorrow… BRING IT ON!!! Go Haas F1 Team!!!

2016 Spanish Grand Prix – Race Final

Well, in racing there is only one position that counts, and Max Verstappen was that guy.

But on the day we’d see Formula 1’s youngest driver win a Championship race, the daily race grind of development continued in the Haas F1 Garage. The 56th of 66 laps saw Romain Grosjean retire. First with a nose issue than a braking issue doomed his race.

Esteban Gutierrez could not hold onto that final points position and landed in 11th place. We are yet to see the young Mexican bring home points for the Haas F1 Team. His tires faded and he could not hold that 10th spot. this was Esteban’s opportunity to take his drive to the next level and he could not. His car has not been reliable and he has express apprehension about being blamed for team issues. And it is in his self-defense that he creates a gap between him and the team. The team should be making these statements to cover the driver. Is there a riff? Esteban does seem to be somewhat reactive to situations and it’s probably best that camera’s not be present at those moments. A single sound bite can change everything.

So The Haas F1 team scored no points and only one car completed the race. My goal for the team was to have two cars complete the race with one in points. But Barcelona was the first benchmark for the team.

Grosjean was fighting in the points when he had to retire. So the performance is in the car. We’ve got 5 races in the books. We’ve his the first milestone for the team and the fans are optimistic. It is not realistic to judge the progress of the Haas F1 Team on a weekly basis. We want a winner every week, but the rookie team is still in development. Progress can be measured in 4-5 race increments. I believe we can expect a continually steady climb in the team’s performance.

Gene Haas wants to see CNC machines, but on race day it’s all about winning!

Bring on Monaco!!! It is going to be absolutely fantastic!!!!!!

2016 Spanish Grand Prix – Some Pre-race Sangria

It is Saturday night on the East Coast of the United States. The Spanish Grand prix is tomorrow morning at 8:00 AM. Europe means 8 AM sunday races… yes!

If the F1 season was a football game we’d be starting the second quarter. The team has established a 4 race baseline and are starting to up their expectations. Grosjean and Gutierrez qualified 14thand 16th. Both cars made it out of the first qualifying session and were eliminated in the second. Yes it is racing and second place is the first looser. Getting both cars into Q2 is a reasonable expectation or target for success.

Coming into Spain our hopes were raised just slightly because Catalunya Madrid is the only track on the schedule that the team had performance data on. Grosjean complained that the car was undrivable during practice. They dialed the car back to the Sochi setup and started over. Romain seemed happier with his performance. Or perhaps he was just in a more guarded mindset during the post qualifying media scrum.

The Haas F1 team seems to be consistently qualifying into the area of 12th to 16th positions. Their consistency and reliability have been the hall marks for the team so far. Gains by Mclaren and Renault will keep the mid-pack pressure on the team.

But for the Spanish Grand Prix… again I expect at least 1 car in the points. My target for the team is to have one car in points per race. To maintain that goal we’ll need to see both drivers in points at some point since they have only 1 race so far without a driver in the points.

I expect Grosjean to be in points. He is going to extend the range of his tires and maximize those mediums. He has 2 sets of Hard Compound Pirelli’s. Will we see hard compounds in the race?

prediction: Grosjean in the points.

Not a very exciting journal entry. all of the excitement this race was about Max Verstappen replacing Dany Kvyat at Redbull. I predict a critical mistake by the over zealous Belgian.

2016 Russian Grand Prix – Post Race Wrap

Again, the Haas F1 Team delivers. Both cars finished the race and Grosjean landed in 8th. My expectations were exceeded by the team scoring points. But I think we are going to get used to this real quick and the bar will continue to notch up.

The race review I am about to write seems like a repetition to my pre-race analysis, because my pre-race analysis was consistent with what happened. Since it’s a journal I can say things like that. So…

Turn 1 was a bottleneck, Vettel was knocked out going into turn 2 by Kvyat . Grosjean was off with a jack rabbit start and in a safe position from the turn 1 contacts. Gutierrez found himself in trouble with the Force India car of Nico Hulkenberg and was forced to change his nose when the smoke cleared. Under Caution Gutierrez did not seem to lose much track position, but in the end he did not gain any either.

Grosjean’s performance, on the other hand, must be bringing the attention from other teams. I give my driver of the day to Jan Magnussen because he did the most with the least. But Romain carried the mail for Haas today.

The Mercedes powered cars were the biggest threat to Haas. The Williams and Force India’s are the teams Haas seems to possibly be on par with. The Force India of Sergio Perez was on the tail of Grosjean for nearly the entire second half of the race, and the Haas car provided the necessary performance for Grosjean to fight. In all but the Chinese Grand Prix are we seeing that Grosjean’s Haas is in the mix, and winning their battles.

On the other hand, the 21 car is not matching the 8. As Guiterrez settles into the car he will improve. But the driver selection was based on blind expectations, and an apparent obligation to escalate the Ferrari reserve driver. Was this an out for Ferrari? A courtesy for Haas? We have a long season ahead of us, and a proper evaluation can only be performed after the season. But in the heat of battle it is easy to get over zealous in our evaluations. But at some point the delta between the two drivers will be evaluated and it’s impossible to avoid the subject.

Grosjean definitely got the jump on Guitteries when they went green. That put Grosjean into a better position and ahead, and allowed him to emerge unscathed from turn 1. Again,in the pre-race review I mentioned to watch the difference between their two starts. But Grosjean seems to be a master of starting, and that is a trait he brings at Lotus. But Gutierrez was lined up next

Based on the 2014 performance payout schedule, the fifth place team was Williams and received $83 million dollars in FIA award payouts in 2015. That is where Haas is on pace to finish. for a team that is rumored to be operating in the $100 million range, the team could make profit if they sell enough hats. … But seriously, the team appears to be in a strong financial position as a result of their performance. Gene Haas was quoted somewhere as saying that paraphrase: Grosjean has already paid for himself.

So a great result. And again, I apologize to @RenaultSportF1 for a tweet comment. It was made in the “esprit de l’occasion”.

Bring on Barcelona!

2016 Russian Grand Prix – Hold On for Round 4

So the Haas boys have qualified Grosjean 15th, Gutierrez 16th.

The Formula 1 qualifying format breaks the drivers down into three groups, based on their qualifying elimination. Grosjean and Gutierrez are at the bottom of the second group… not bad. They are ahead of Manor, Sauber and Renault. Not bad considering one of the teams is Renault… and that the other team is also a Ferrari customer.

Clearly the trouble lies ahead, with those Mercedes powered cars towards the front of the grid. So what should my perspective be? I want to hear the American Anthem played in Russia!!! Let’s get that out of the way.

But… just bring the cars home is what we want. The last race did not even come close to previous expectations; Esteban’s 14th and Romains 19th in the Chinese Grand Prix. But those results are on par with their qualifying for Sochi. 15/16

Grosjean still lagged a bit there in China finishing 19th. The discussion breaks down to tire grip. When I see the car I see oversteer, the suspension seems to not be taking the energy. But as @Mattpt55 put it in a tweet, the problem seems “to be baked” into the tire, which is the best way to describe it. Every part of the car suspension has to do a job to take a turn. It is simple physics, but not so simple. As that car is trying to get around a turn, the idea is to take the energy from the inside front wheel and to transfer it to the opposite rear. Everything along that visual path you created in your head comes into play, including the chassis.

Today during the NBC Broadcast Steve Machette said something very peculiar that no one seemed to pick up on. During the broadcast he blamed the possible slip on, Paraphrase: a fatigued chassis . I find this surprising. Composite structures do not degrade in a way which energy transfer would be effected. These chassis are built in autoclaves under vacuum and heat. Boeing is using these same technologies to build the 787 and 777. After 4 races, could a chassis cause suspension issues or even change in it’s integrity? Or… is Steve Machette manufacturing a cause? I think he is doing a very careful tip toe through the Pirelli tulips! Careful there Steve, don’t tread upon ones bulbs! I think it’s the tires…

Regarding the Chassis…

Haas did everything the could to eliminate manufacturing flaws from the equation. Any aspect of the chassis which could be attributed to the manufacturing process, went to Dallara. Seemingly conflicting information, which was actually evolving information, did come out of the Haas camp. Initially the claim was that Dallara will only be exercising their manufacturing expertise. Haas will deliver all engineering to Dallara. But over time, relationships build. Some smart guy at Dallara gains the respect of a Haas engineer and says, ya know… we’ve seen this or that… or have done it this way here and there, and now the design is evolving. It is almost impossible to imagine a situation where that does not happen. When people go to work every day they put their best into it. And if a guy is going to work to build an F1 car chassis that day, he’s amped! I’ve noted a softening between the lines with Dallara, which is how every good business relationship evolves.

In an earlier post I questioned whether either of these cars were the prototypes? I’m not entirely ruling out what Steve said, but I believe it is more down to vehicle dynamics. This is where a single tire supplier is bad. It creates a blind baseline of sorts. The current minimums are 23 psi (fronts) 19.5 psi (rears). As long as there is only one tire manufacturer, every team is the same, so Pirelli opt on the high side to best protect their marketing interest, tire exploding and maring their good name. But another tire manufacturer will push both , because they want the marketing sweetness that only winning brings. Currently Pirelli wins every race. they just lower the bar for “everyone’s own good, safety!” uh huh… I digress…

This we do know… The Haas car is fast. The results in Australia and Bahrain have demonstrated a high degree of potential. Imagine the Haas teams expectations this week had they never tasted points? A 5th and 6th place finish does not happen by accident. I started this piece with the long-range perspective and here I am… Talking about 5th and 6th place finishes.

But there is yet another aspect to this race. We have Guiterrez and Grosjean lining up next to each other. With Guiterrez finishing ahead of his French teammate in china, he might have a bit of a swagger to him.

Turn 1 is a dog leg right, after which you need a #1 driver to hit the green on 2. This track is exactly opposite to China. I think I don’t like that track at all. Anyway, it’s a short run to turn 1, so launch is everything. A slow start means they’ve gotta carry the extra speed into one… it could bottleneck, and whoever has the most speed out of turn 1 will get the better line into 2, and leading. It is a good track.

Results… my gut tells me that we see points. All things being equal, I think the senior driver brings home the bacon. But I’m not willing to underestimate Gutierrez. He has improved every race, well sorta. But his attitude has been right on. and he has taken exception to the correct things. Perhaps some of that Ferrari discipline is paying off for Haas. there’s many ways to measure winning and so far Gutierrez is exceeding those expectations.

12th and 8th…

I’m not proof reading this, so please forgive me. sorry for rambling.

And to the HAAS Team… It’s May Day In Russia! Fly those American Flags Loud and Proud!!! Let our Russian hosts see our colors! Your fans are behind you 1000%

Party on Garth!