Red Bull is bringing their “A” game to the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix. They have developed a new engine, but only have one ready. Despite the amazing victory by Max Verstappen in Spain, the decision was a no brainer for the engine choice nod to go to Daniel Riccardo.
After watching the first two practice sessions the general consensus seems to be that Red bull is the likely candidate for pole, and Riccardo’s lead after P2 seems to support that. But rewind and contrast to the 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix. Vettel took his first victory in a Ferrari after only his second drive for the team. It was what would become the beginning of a culture of complaining being expressed by the Red Bull Team principal. The noise coming from the Red Bull camp seemed to simmer down once their motor contract issues were resolved late in the 2015 season. Max Verstappen’s win in Spain has solidified their belief that they can win with this car, and the Monaco circuit suites the Red Bull chassis well. The Planets are aligned and Christian Horner seems poised to have his revenge.
I know this is the Haas F1 Journal, but the discussion must begin with pole position. Passing on the Monaco circuit generally comes at the cost of a mistake by another driver. But the narrow roads that twist up and down the steep grades of the mediterranean fishing village were too dangerous for racing in the 1950’s. I would place the odds of a yellow flag after turn 1 at over 50% in favor of a “coming together” if not worse. If the team can qualify well, not lose position or contention because of crashing, and the attrition rate in front of them is high, the Haas F1 Team can score points. There are a lot “if’s” in that sentence, but the Haas Team is at even odds with the rest of the pack in that regard. The racecraft that Gene Haas brings to the F1 paddock could be the difference in a position or whether they score points. Attrition is generally beyond the control of the team. But mistakes can be less forgiving at Monaco. A stuck wheel spinner during a pit stop could mean a position. So having the fastest car on pole should give you the best opportunity to clear turn 1 as the leader. The odds for trouble escalates as you work your way back through the first few rows of legitimate contenders. It is that next group of teams where Haas has demonstrated good pace to compete, among the mid-pack teams.
Now this is a new team, but the learning curve is steep. There is a very real possibility for the Haas F1 Team to score points in Monaco. But can they put 2 cars in the money? It’s really difficult to objectively say. Esteban Gutierrez finished Practice 2 in 13th position and Romain Grosjean in 15th. The Haas racecraft has proven effective up to this point. But is Monaco the “eye opener” the Haas detractors spoke of before the season started? Could be.
Like I said, the learning curve is steep and there is less room for mistakes at Monaco. The Haas drivers will be up to the task. I have complete confidence in Romain Grosjean and am modestly optimistic. In Spain Grosjean qualified in 13th position. Gutierrez anchored the last position from the Q2 qualifiers in 15th position. That is about where we should realistically expect them to qualify for Monaco. Can they score points from that far back? The Ferrari power in the Haas car has demonstrated the ability to keep the mid pack at bey when their tires hold out. Perhaps tire strategy could come into play?
The Ultra Soft Pirelli’s seem to be a bit… “floaty” during practice. The side walls do not appear to be matching the design metrics or load balancing intent of the suspension. Commentators on NBC indicated that more rear wing down force is required to keep the back ends of the cars planted. But a sidewall performance issue can only be negated by the rear downforce, not corrected. If the side walls of the front tires are providing varied load transfer to the suspension then a suspension adjustment is required first. But vehicle dynamics can be more of an art than engineering. So the suspension has to be tuned to an estimated mid-point of the various sidewall stiffness on the various compounds. If the softness of the Ultrasofts are too far out of the range, we could see excessive rear tire wear as the backs ends of the cars lose that balance between the front and rear tires and the load fails to transfer, causing an imbalance in dynamics and the rear to float. Hence excessive tire wear.
Who knows what will happen. The third practice has not happened yet, so I am working with what info I have through P2. But perhaps I’ve omitted the single factor which could have the biggest impact, the weather. The forecast for qualifying is for warm temps up to 75 degrees (24 celsius). The race is scheduled to start at 2:00 PM local time (8:00 AM East Coast US) On Sunday. Accu-Weather is predicting 51% chance of thunder showers at 1:00 PM in Monaco.
I’m sticking with my default prediction. Haas will have one car in points. Having both cars cross the finish line will be an important feat. The rain could be a mess, making for an exciting race. And the rain favors Grosjean. He seems to do well when tire treatment comes into play. This is where racecraft, good driving and a bit of luck at turn 1 could play to the favor of the Haas Team.
I’d be remiss if I did not mention the pride which will be felt by Americans around the world as the Haas F1 cars line up on the starting grid of the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix. The excitement for the Haas F1 Team is growing across the US. And when a car wearing the American flag competes, it also competes for 300 Million other Americans. This is Memorial Day weekend in the United States. On Monday May 30th we will not only be enjoying an extended weekend holiday but remembering the fallen Americans from all wars. The flag on the Haas car races for them, and 300 Million Americans are along for the ride!
Qualifying is tomorrow… BRING IT ON!!! Go Haas F1 Team!!!